Monday, March 05, 2007

Iran/Israel: the war of nerves

"It's startling to talk to people who say they are actually losing sleep over when the Iranians will attack," says one Israeli businessman. In a country constantly attuned to the emergence of threats, the intention of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad to "wipe Israel off the map" - whether or not his comments have been mistranslated or misinterpreted, as Tehran claims - are not easily dismissed.
David Seaton's News Links
The paragraph above, taken from the Financial Times, sums up neatly what is really going on. Iran is "psyching" Israel out: Ahmadinejad is talking trash and the Israelis are beginning to freak out. As Jacques Chirac said (before he backtracked) the chances of an Iranian atomic first-strike on Israel are negligible. Given Israel's second strike capability, the Iranians are not about to commit suicide. What has the Israelis sweating bullets is the idea that the Iranians themselves would have a second strike capability. This is not really about Israel's physical survival, it is about Israel's nerve. Can the Israelis live with the idea that a hostile power exists in striking distance from them, that cannot be intimidated beyond a certain point?

News Links readers will be familiar with my idea that Israel has become a country whose prosperity overly depends on small group of engineers and scientists who are the backbone (and the ribs and the hands and the feet) of the "New", science based, economy. These people and their jobs are by definition relocatable and outsource-able. If the kitchen gets too hot, none of these people would have any problem leaving. They could all have new jobs in hours, anywhere on earth. If that happened the Israeli economy would simply collapse. The social tensions would be unbearable.

By basing Israel's economy on these scientists and engineers, and the volatile venture capital that pays for their projects, the Israelis have potentially recreated a class of human being that Zionism was intended to specifically eliminate: the "Der Vanderner Yid" or Wandering Jew. Israel may turn out to be the world's biggest victim of the New Economy. DS

America and Israel wary as war drums beat - Financial Times
Abstract: Although a large number of military analysts in the US argue that strikes against Iran's scattered, buried and hidden nuclear facilities do not make sense and would most likely result in serious retaliation, they also concede that this might not stop President George W. Bush. "The 'making sense' filter was not applied for over four years for Iraq and it is unlikely to be applied in evaluating whether to attack Iran," Sam Gardiner, a retired Air Force colonel and planning expert, wrote for the Century Foundation, a think-tank. In fact, he says, military operations have already begun, citing reports that US and Israeli commandos started penetrating Iran in 2004 and that covert aid has been supplied to anti-regime militants.That Iran heads up Washington's list of international threats is due in part to Israel's relentless diplomacy on the issue. The Islamic Republic has been at the top of Israel's strategic agenda since long before the war in Iraq. In recent months, however, the spectre of a nuclear Iran has turned these long-standing concerns into a national obsession. "It's startling to talk to people who say they are actually losing sleep over when the Iranians will attack," says one Israeli businessman. In a country constantly attuned to the emergence of threats, the intention of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad to "wipe Israel off the map" - whether or not his comments have been mistranslated or misinterpreted, as Tehran claims - are not easily dismissed. As the threat posed by the Palestinian uprising has receded, Israelis have turned their attention to external dangers, particularly after a Lebanon war that delivered a smarting blow to the concept of Israeli deterrence. READ IT ALL

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